Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/11 – Zone Coverage

December 12, 2021 by No Comments

Locks

NCAA Basketball (1.5 Unit) South Dakota State/Washington State Over 155 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

The defensive deficiencies are getting fairly out of hand for South Dakota State and should get exploited again by a sneaky-good Washington State team.

The Jackrabbits have allowed 87.8 PPG against their last four D1 opponents, and are now down to 302nd in defensive efficiency on the season. Being 11th in pace and the best 3-point shooting team in the country has masked some of those deficiencies, but they just allowed 98 and 90 points to two teams with very poor offenses. It’s all led to SDSU being a cash machine for overs though, as they’re 7-2 to the over against today’s total.

Plenty of jokes can be made about Washington State’s 51-29 win over Arizona State, but the Cougars are actually 23rd in offensive efficiency this season. It doesn’t take nearly that level of performance to score at will against this SDSU team, so I see another track meet as this one flies over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNC Greensboro +19.5 @ Tennessee (-110): 3:30 PM CT on SEC Network

The movement on this spread has gotten out of hand in my opinion, especially for the style of game I think we see here.

The same old offensive weaknesses have reappeared for Tennessee, as they’re just 208th in true shooting percentage despite some very weak competition. The Vols have also struggled against teams who can slow the pace and defend, only managing 58 PPG against those three opponents. That describes this Greensboro team fairly accurately, as the Spartans are 65th in points allowed and a glacial 335th in pace.

The total here of 127.5 is a strong indicator that defense will define this game, and in a low-scoring affair, I’ll gladly take this many points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona PICK @ Illinois (-110): 4:00 PM CT on FOX

It’s a tough road test for this hot Arizona team, and apparently, the betting market hasn’t seen enough out of the Wildcats yet. I’ve seen plenty, though, to back them at this short price against a disappointing Illinois squad.

Illinois has not turned into what they were expected to be so far this season and certainly isn’t last year’s excellent team. Their shooting has fallen off considerably and the defense has not been reliable, with the Illini all the way down to 117th in defensive rating. It’s valid to question if Arizona’s 3rd-rated offense will travel to Champaign, but it’s already put 90 on a …….

Source: https://zonecoverage.com/2021/gambling/tiny-nicks-gambling-picks-12-11-2/

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